Is this the year for Oscar surprises?

In this day and age of endless film awards shows and scores of internet Oscar prognosticators, the winners are all but a foregone conclusion by the time the Academy Awards ceremony takes place; if you even watch the show anymore, all you can hope for is perhaps one surprise win and some years that doesn’t happen. This year feels different—until a couple of weeks ago, when “Anora” won the PGA award for Best Picture and the DGA award for Sean Baker as Best Director, there was no clear-cut favorite. One film that appeared to be an Academy darling, “Emilia Pérez,” saw its chances derailed by controversial resurfaced social media posts from its star, Karla Sofía Gascón. Gascón, the first trans actress to be nominated for Best Actress, saw her chances of winning an Oscar evaporate when it was discovered that she may not be as accepting a person as people were expecting a trans person to be. The defense of her past posts did her no favors, and quickly, “Emilia Pérez” went from frontrunner to also-ran. Zoe Saldana still has a chance to win an Oscar for her supporting performance in the film, but even that is no longer a lock.

I’ve seen all of the nominees in the major categories, so here is a rundown of who I think is going to win the gold statue come Oscar night, Sunday, March 2:

Best Original Screenplay

“Anora,” written by Sean Baker

“The Brutalist,” written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold

“A Real Pain,” written by Jesse Eisenberg

“September 5” written by Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David

“The Substance,” written by Coralie Fargeat

All five nominated films are excellent, and my pick is “The Brutalist.” Who do I think the Academy will pick? There is a lot of love for Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay for “A Real Pain,” It deserves praise, but if “Anora” is the frontrunner, it could be the winner. If “Anora” wins Best Original Screenplay, I think it will win all the big awards on Sunday.

Best Adapted Screenplay

“A Complete Unknown,” screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks

“Conclave,” screenplay by Peter Straughan

“Emilia Pérez,” screenplay by Jacques Audiard, in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi

“Nickel Boys,” screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes

“Sing Sing,” screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

This category is a tough one to call. My pick goes to “A Compete Unknown,” but I think the Academy will pick “Conclave.” Before the controversy around Emilia Perez, I would have said the Academy would select that film. Now, they will choose from the two films they know the best, “A Complete Unknown” or “Conclave.” 

Best Directing

“Anora,” directed by Sean Baker

“The Brutalist,” directed by Brady Corbet

“A Complete Unknown,” directed by James Mangold

“Emilia Pérez,” directed by Jacques Audiard

“The Substance,” directed by Coralie Fargeat

Again, “Emilia Pérez” was considered a brief favorite (although I did not think it was good enough to be nominated in the first place), but there is no way that film is winning in this category. If there were any justice, Brady Corbet would win for “The Brutalist.” Hands down, he did the best job of directing this year, and even though the DGA went for “Anora,” and only a handful of times in the DGA’s history has their winner for Best Director not gone on to win at the Academy, I think there is still a shot that Corbet wins. “Anora” would be my second choice, although if a shock were to happen and Coralie Fargeat won for “The Substance,” I’d be tickled. That movie is a knockout and deserves all of the accolades it’s received.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”

Ariana Grande, “Wicked”

Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”

Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”

Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Saldaña was the favorite to win in this category, and I think she will still be the winner come Oscar night. However, the Supporting Actress category has a history of surprise winners. If an Academy shutout happens with “Emilia Pérez,” Ariana Grande could find herself holding the statue. My choice is Zoe Saldaña.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov, “Anora”

Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”

Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”

Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

This category is solid, but if I were to replace one person, I’d swap Edward Norton for Clarence Maclin’s performance in “Sing Sing.” If there is one category you can safely put your money on this year, it’s this one. Kieran Culkin isn’t going to lose. He is the clear favorite, and amongst a list of standout performances, his is the best. If you haven’t seen “A Real Pain” yet, it’s available to stream, and I recommend it.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”

Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”

Mikey Madison, “Anora”

Demi Moore, “The Substance”

Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

The sentimental favorite to win the Oscar this year is Demi Moore in “The Substance.” Is it the best performance of the five? No. Is it the second-best performance of the five? No, it is not. But is it the performance the Academy is likely to award with an Oscar? Yes, it is. The best performance this year was Mikey Madison in “Anora,” and if “Anora” ends up having a great night, Madison might find herself winning the gold. The second best performance is Fernanda Torres in “I’m Still Here.” If  she were to win, I would not be unhappy. But hey, Demi Moore took a significant risk being in “The Substance,” and the film’s message is one that I believe many Hollywood actors can relate to. It could be time for Moore to make space on her mantel.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”

Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”

Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”

Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

This category is a two-horse race. It’s down to Brody or Chalamet. If we are being serious, it should be Brody all the way. His performance in “The Brutalist” is next-level. It’s not even close, and we shouldn’t have to discuss it. But there is a silly controversy over the fact that some AI-enhanced sound software was used to improve Brody’s accent during his Budapest language-speaking scenes, so now it’s a Chalamet world, and we’re just living in it. I still don’t understand how using a computer program to perfect an accent for a couple of scenes is wrong, but using CGI to make someone fly around on a broomstick in “Wicked” or deploying layers of makeup in a film like “The Substance” is okay? Film history is lined with innovations and techniques to lend credibility or magic to the storytelling. They take nothing away from the performances. So, my pick is Brody, and I think the Academy is going for Chalamet. If “The Brutalist” had not come along, my pick would have been Chalamet. He is fantastic as Bob Dylan. So if he wins, there is no shame, but Brody was still the best.

Best Picture

“Anora”

“The Brutalist”

“A Complete Unknown”

“Conclave”

“Dune: Part Two”

“Emilia Pérez”

“I’m Still Here”

“Nickel Boys”

“The Substance”

“Wicked”

My top five films of the year made it onto the Best Picture list, so I can’t complain. “Anora” appears to be the consensus pick this year, although if you’ve seen the movie, you know—it is not the type of film the Academy typically chooses. I think “Emilia Pérez” would be the Academy’s choice, but that all changed as soon as the controversy emerged. “The Brutalist” is the best film of the year and is the one I’d choose if I got to vote. However, the Academy appears to be moving in a different direction. The fun choice would be “The Substance.” It won’t win, of course, but if it were the night’s winner, it would undoubtedly be a moment to remember. Anyone who has seen “The Substance” and that final 20 minutes knows precisely how bonkers a movie it is. 

Now, all that’s left is for the winners to be announced on Sunday, March 2, beginning at 7 p.m.

James Kent is the publisher’s assistant and arts editor at the Mountain Times.