Vt’s future is a choice between scarcity and abundance

By Kevin Chu

Editor’s note: Kevin Chu is the executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, an independent non-partisan organization pursuing answers to their mission question: How can we use data to support the evolution of Vermont’s economy towards a thriving future full of opportunity for all?

Personal growth is universally celebrated. We encourage people to pursue education, seek professional development, and advance in their endeavors. We applaud entrepreneurs who take risks, innovate, and build successful enterprises. We praise people who overcome adversity and become more resilient in the process.  

Yet, when it comes to Vermont’s communities, there is hesitation to embrace the same idea of growth, with some even calling for degrowth. Population growth and new housing developments are treated as threats that need to be protected against. Protection of what and for whom? What if the real danger is not growing?  

We celebrate growth on an individual level — let’s extend that sentiment to our state as a whole.   

What if we don’t?  

The challenges Vermont faces today — workforce shortages, the housing crisis, rising costs for healthcare and education, and a growing tax burden — are symptoms of stagnation. The root causes are lack of sufficient growth in our working-age population and new housing over several decades.  

In doing nothing, Vermont risks either increasing cost of living or uncomfortable reductions in programs, services, and infrastructure that Vermonters rely on. There’s already evidence of this from double-digit property tax increases to cuts in transportation, proposed reductions in hospital services, and school consolidation. These are the options if Vermont doesn’t grow; these are the impacts of choosing scarcity.  

Don’t like these options? Many Vermonters agree with you. More Vermonters support population growth and increased housing than oppose it.  

What’s the alternative?

Choose abundance. 

We can make Vermont more affordable and maintain critical services with growth. A larger working-age population strengthens the workforce. This supports business success and can lead to higher wages. Growing the population also means more taxpayers rather than more taxes. Increased housing improves affordability and accessibility for current and future Vermonters. Growth ensures that our communities remain viable places for people to build their futures while fostering greater sustainability and resilience. In depopulated areas, growth can lead to revitalization and the utilization of existing resources. 

These are the potential benefits of abundance.  

How do we get there from here? 

The first step is to move beyond endless debates about how we got here or whose fault it is and start focusing on collaborating to do something about it. We need solutions, not scapegoats. 

Then we must make a choice. Do we accept scarcity and adapt to rising costs or declining services, or do we choose a future of abundance where strategic growth makes Vermont more affordable? 

If we choose affordability and abundance, the Vermont Futures Project Economic Action Plan lays out a data-informed roadmap for making this vision a reality.  

Let’s embrace a collective growth mindset. Our future depends on it.