Dear Editor,
I am concerned about the upcoming community decision on the proposed new middle and high school. The plan is based on a model that is out-of-sync with recent enrollment trends and future projections. Since education funding in Vermont is based on enrollment, it is a critical element of any funding plan. Indeed, the School Board’s hope to increase students in grades 7-12 from the current 452 to 700 has been highlighted in presentations as a way to help fund the school and keep tax rates from skyrocketing. But if their growth projections do not occur, our already high taxes will rise beyond affordability for most people.
How likely is this desired increase in enrollment to come to fruition? The enrollment trajectory at Woodstock Union over recent decades and forecasts on the impact of decreased birthrates on school-age populations can help answer this. Enrollment in FY2001 dropped from 721 students, to 663 in FY2004, to 511 in Oct 2020 (the peak of the Covid “bump”), to 486 in Oct 2021, and is now 452 in January 2024. Applying a U.S. Department of Education projection of an 11.2% drop in Vermont statewide enrollment between 2021 and 2030 (reported in nesdec.org), enrollment would be down to 432 by 2030.
I fully appreciate the importance of public education, support investment in education, and support a major project to address the school’s obvious needs. But the choice that we must make must be based on actual needs (enrollment) and resources (tax base). I am worried that the planning has been based on a laudable optimism but is not realistic. We must live within our means while we invest in education, ensuring the health of the community in every way.
Sincerely,
Pamela Fraser
Former WCUUSD School Board member; parent, and WUHS Class of 2023
