The Vermont Dept. of Labor released data on the Vermont economy on Aug. 18 for the time period covering July 2023. According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for July was 1.8%. This reflects a decrease of 1/10 of 1 percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate. The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.9% in July, an increase of 1/10 of 1 percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
“As Vermont continues with recovery efforts, the data released today adds some initial perspective to the overall magnitude of the disasters. The monthly numbers show a decrease of 1,700 jobs in July in the Accommodation & Food Services industry. The weekly reports showing unemployment insurance claims level activity also provide a partial picture of the economic disruption with claims levels 50% higher this summer when compared to last summer.
“ Anyone, including self-employed individuals and independent contractors, who has seen their earnings impacted by the flood should file first for traditional unemployment insurance benefits before requesting Disaster Unemployment Assistance,” said Michael Harrington, the commissioner.
The Vermont seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined to 1.8% in July. The comparable United States rate in July was 3. %, a decrease of 1/10 of 1 percentage point from the revised June estimate. The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 728 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons increased by 1,157 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 429. The changes to the number of employed persons, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.5% in Burlington-South Burlington and White River Junction to 2.9% in Derby. For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 1.8%, a decrease of 3/10 of 1 percentage point from the revised unadjusted June level and a decrease of 8/10 of 1 percentage point from a year ago.
Seasonally-adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for July reported an increase of 2,800 jobs from the revised June data. There was an increase of 2,300 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July were varied at the industry level. Those with a notable increase included: Local government (+4,100 jobs or +13.9%) and health care and social assistance (+400 jobs or +0.8%). Industries with a notable decrease included: accommodation and food services (-1,700 jobs or -5.6%) and other services (-300 jobs or -3.1%)
Not-seasonally-adjusted
The preliminary “not-seasonally-adjusted” jobs estimates for July showed a decrease of 2,000 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. As with the seasonally-adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced an increase of 3,100 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally-adjusted July data, total private industries increased by 100 jobs (+0.0%) over the year and government (including public education) employment increased by 2,300 jobs (+4.6%) in the past year.
