By Emma Cotton/VTDigger
The Conservation Law Foundation expects Vermont to miss its first legally mandated deadline to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9%-12%.
The group’s estimates marked the latest in a debate between state officials and data experts over the accuracy of the data used to assess Vermont’s compliance with its emissions deadlines.
A 2020 state law, known as the Global Warming Solutions Act, set three deadlines for reducing emissions that contribute to climate change. Policies must be in place to bring emissions down to 26% below 2005 levels by 2025, to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80% below 1990 levels — or net zero — by 2050. The law also allowed lawsuits to be filed against the state if it failed to meet the deadlines.
In September, the Conservation Law Foundation used that provision to sue the state, alleging that the Agency of Natural Resources was using inaccurate data to claim that Vermont is on track to meet the 2025 deadline.
Until recently, the state has used data from its annual Greenhouse Gas Inventory to predict future emissions, but this year, it switched to using a new model from the Energy Futures Group, which was created to determine how certain policies could impact Vermont’s emissions. The Conservation Law Foundation and other data experts argue the model wasn’t created to measure Vermont’s compliance with the climate law.
To meet the 2025 deadline, Vermont must have policies in place to hit 7.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the metric used to track emissions — down from 9.86 million metric tons in 2005.
Of the 2.56 million metric tons Vermont needed to reduce, Hopkins said Wednesday that he expects the state to miss the mark by between 230,000 and 310,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent — between 9% and 12%.
Elena Mihaly, vice president of Conservation Law Foundation Vermont, said 300,000 metric tons is the equivalent of “Vermonters driving more than 785 million miles in gasoline powered passenger vehicles over the course of a year.”
“What’s, frankly, so alarming, is that the agency has spent the last year telling the Climate Council, leaders of our state legislature and the public that we are on track, that it does not need any new rules or updates to ensure meeting the 2025 mandate,” Mihaly said.
