Foliage experts expect a colorful season

By Catherine Hurley/VTDigger

It’s already been a great year for hydrangeas, magnolias and lilacs in New England. Now it’s Vermont’s leaf-peeping season and foliage experts predict another strong, colorful showing.

“We see a fairly positive set of circumstances surrounding this year’s prospects,” Jim Salge, a former meteorologist at Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire, wrote in his annual fall foliage forecast for New England magazine. “The forest looks healthy, vibrant, and full of energy, and therefore primed for a big show.”

In Vermont, experts agree.

“Things are looking very good right now. We had a good growing season,” said Josh Halman, forest health program manager at the Vermont Dept. of Forests, Parks and Recreation. Halman is part of a team that flies over the state each year to assess forest damage, and so far, he hasn’t seen any negative impact on hardwood trees.

Foliage in Vermont peaks between mid-September and late-October, and as the season approaches, observers will first see red maple trees start to turn, mainly in the Northeast Kingdom and wetland areas. 

“Those are just starting to come to life a little bit with their red colors,” Halman said.

At this point last year, fungal diseases posed the biggest concern for the foliage season. According to Salge, trees put more resources towards producing seeds, which left them more vulnerable to fungi.

“Last summer, the rains wouldn’t stop, leading to a lot of fungus in the fall that muted much of our display,” Salge wrote in his forecast. But with a mild winter and cool, long-lasting spring weather, “the trees had a long season in which to store energy for this year.”

Halman has seen the result of that growing season here in Vermont.

“We’ve seen a little bit of that this year,” he said, referring to leaf fungi. “Didn’t seem to have the same level of fungal activity on maple species as we did last year, so that’s good.”

Although forecasts predict a great foliage season, Halman warned that weather changes can cause last-minute changes to what is on display.

“It’s worth saying,” he said, that storms or heavy winds headed into peak season can strip foliage from trees and reduce the amount of color on the landscape. That kind of strong weather can change the timing and duration of peak season, though right now, things are looking good.

“It’s really hard to forecast what’s going to happen in the next few weeks in terms of weather,” Halman said.

Ideal weather conditions for foliage include warm days and cool nights. For the forecast to stay bright, fall conditions need to cooperate, Salge said in his report.

“I’m hoping, beyond all hope, it makes for happy trees,” said Jeff “Foliage” Folger, a New England foliage blogger and photographer who describes himself as “mildly obsessive about leaves.” (The nickname came from his editor at Yankee magazine, where Folger was the first foliage blogger.)

Folger, who lives in Salem, Mass., has flown his drone above his home and seen leaves already starting to turn, which he normally doesn’t see until October. It’s hit or miss, he said, whether those leaves will also turn brown earlier than usual.

“Every year we see some trees cause a panic,” when their leaves turn and drop early, Folger said. “But it’s not widespread.” He said it’s normal for there to be some early fall color, where a leaf or branch here and there turn before the rest.

With hope for a colorful season, Folger has a few recommendations for leaf peepers in Vermont.

“You always have the classics,” he said. “From Woodstock south, down to the Mass border are going to be the brighter colors this year because there’s been less rain,” Folger said.