By Anne Galloway, VTDigger.org
Governor Peter Shumlin is hitting the airwaves with feel-good film clips of Vermonters talking about his accomplishments. He spent $235,000 in September, mostly on advertising, and he has raised $100,000 over the same period from unions, businesses and individuals.
So far the governor has raised a total of nearly $700,000 this election cycle and still has more than $1 million in his war chest, most of which has been carried forward from the last election.
Scott Milne, the Republican candidate for governor, made a solid showing this reporting period with about $80,000 over the past few weeks, with his son Keith Milne contributing $9,500 to the effort.
Milne’s fundraising, however, is far behind Shumlin’s and he is still not in a position to support a robust campaign effort with television ads, staff and mailings. All told, Milne has raised about $137,000 for his campaign and has about $40,000 on hand.
Dan Feliciano, the Libertarian candidate, only raised about $3,500 this period, and has spent about $25,000, so far.
Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, a Republican, caught up with Dean Corren, the Progressive/Democratic candidate, in this reporting cycle. Scott has now raised $200,000 and is now evenly matched with Corren, who qualifies for $200,000 under the public finance law.
In a typical year, competitive candidates spend between $50,000 to $70,000 a week, according to Eric Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor. In light of the most recent filings, Davis has revised his gubernatorial race prediction for Nov. 4. He says Shumlin will likely get more than 50 percent of the vote, perhaps even 55 percent, and Milne will be under 40 percent. Feliciano could get 3 percent to 5 percent of ballots cast, Davis said. Previously, he has said Feliciano’s piece of the wedge would be 10 percent.
The lieutenant governor’s race is competitive, but Davis still puts Scott ahead of Corren by about 10 points.